Opponents of Brexit in the 2016 referendum promised a real disaster for Great Britain. Worse, after the notable success of its vaccination strategy compared to the European Union, for the coming years, a greater economic success for Great Britain than 27 …
Business progress and strong recovery
A month earlier, exports to the EU, with a 41% decline in the UK in January, had been deferred as yet another negative result of Brexit, a 30% drop in imports. However, these figures must be kept in perspective: the truth of a month is not necessarily one year, especially in the aftermath of Brexit and the health crisis. The commercial reality of the post-Brexit period cannot be fully ascertained until the end of 2021. And yet, even in this month of January, the reality was not bad for Britain. Indeed, because the country imports too much from the European Union, as it sells it, the bilateral trade deficit had fallen by one billion. Clearly, in January, trade with the European Union contributed positively to British GDP!
And the February figures are even better, as imports from the EU increased by 7%, including pharmaceutical products, with exports to the EU exploding by more than 46%. As a result, the bilateral deficit was reduced by £ 2.5 billion. Contribution to British GDP from trade with the European Union has already reached 3.5 billion in the first two months, a GDP surplus estimated at around 1%! And overall, exchanges in the first two months of the year with the European Union are compared in terms of health restrictions with exchanges made in April – May 2020. Of course, this is not a final decision, but the trend is clear: business disruption should be fairly limited and London wins over 2 months.
But there is another area where Britain is set to win over the European Union by a large margin: economic reforms in 2021–2022. Of course, the country’s recession was strong in 2020, but now the IMF is forecasting to catch 5.3% growth in Great Britain in 2021 and 5.1% in 2022 and 4.4% for the EU in 2021 over the next two years. This catch is based on several factors. The first is a pre-health exit: Since April 12, the roofs of pubs and restaurants, as well as all shops, have been reopened across the channel, while the rest of the continent is tight and vaccinations are significantly delayed. Second quarter GDP figures will undoubtedly make a big difference on both sides of the channel.
But that is not all, because outside the constraints of Brussels, Great Britain took the opportunity to support its economy compared to its former allies, against 4 to 11% in large-scale EU countries, in budgetary measures of GDP. Injected more than 15% of. If the trade balance does not deteriorate, London will benefit greatly from this more ambitious stimulus. On the other hand, the EU’s recovery plan, already punished and late, has still not been validated, biting badly for its impact on the continent. In addition, a 6.2% increase in the British minimum wage above the French minimum wage, and the collapse of immigration across the channel will support the economy’s demand. To cap it off, the pound has remained at a fairly cheap level since 2016, which has protected the nation’s economy.
What if the victory of the British vaccine strategy in the next two years is only a prelude to that economic success? Some were predicted by the post-Brexit collapse, to ensure that everything is happening, with British economic performance largely outnumbering its former partners, with a policy in contrast to a fiscal parasite, public. Large scale and redevelopment among investments. Status of popular classes.
