The recession will end sooner than expected

Against all expectations, Nigeria, the continent’s largest economy, has just emerged from a recession with slightly positive growth in the fourth quarter of 2020.

The Nigerian economy moved out of the red zone to slightly above zero due to the good performance of agriculture and telecom sectors. GDP increased by 0.11% in the last three months of the year as compared to the previous quarter. The 3.6% decline in GDP between the end of June and the end of September was therefore not repeated, albeit in an oil field, which is a hard-hitting Kovid-19. This is in any case, which is confirmed, the National Agency of Statistics (NBS, National Bureau of Statistics).

It is therefore a development that lies to the forecasts made by the Bloomberg Agency after a survey of five economists. A further decline in GDP was expected around 1.86%.
Nigeria is believed to register a year 2020 based on a decline of 1.92% of its GDP, but this unexpected end of underperformance is beneficial to the continent’s large economy. Recovery will undoubtedly be faster than expected, especially thanks to the good performance of non-oil fields. Furthermore, in keeping with the trend of increase in hydrocarbon prices, the West African giants will have no trouble registering a 3% increase as predicted by the government in 2021. The IMF, which was relying on an increase of only 1.5% of Nigeria’s GDP, is interested in reviewing its copy.


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About the Author: Hanley Mallin

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