Questioning Putins Election: The Impact of Statistical Models – Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty

Award-winning data analyst Sergei Shpilkin has once again raised concerns about potential fraud in Russian elections, particularly in the recent presidential election. Shpilkin’s statistical analysis of voting patterns in both the 2011 parliamentary election and the 2018 presidential election suggested that there may have been millions of fraudulent votes cast.

In the 2018 election, Shpilkin’s model predicted that Vladimir Putin may have received around 10 million fraudulent votes. Following the recent election, journalists and election researchers applied Shpilkin’s model and found that Putin received at least 31.6 million fraudulent votes.

Despite Kremlin experts predicting that Putin would win the election with nearly 87% of the vote, concerns have been raised about the lack of opposition figures on the ballot and reports of individuals being prevented from running against Putin. The official results showed Putin receiving 87.3% of the vote with a 77.44% turnout, setting a record for his presidency.

Shpilkin’s model and other researchers have highlighted anomalies in vote tallies, suggesting manipulation by election officials. Evidence of fraudulent votes, including online voting and votes cast in Ukrainian territories claimed by Russia, has further fueled doubts about the legitimacy of the election results.

Experts have concluded that the recent election was the most falsified in Russian history, raising questions about the fairness of the electoral process and the credibility of the results. As concerns about election fraud continue to grow, it remains to be seen what actions will be taken to address these issues in future elections.

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