FACTS

Polemicist and candidate for leadership of the Conservative Party of Quebec, Mr. Duhaime made similar remarks on 23 and 24 January, in Facebook statuses that were shared several hundred times each. He did not mention any sources but, when I asked him, he referred me to two texts from the Mises Institute and Foundation for Economic Education (FEE), some of which were listed. this is about I think Very ideologically implicit, both belonged to the libertarian movement. The two articles send essentially the same message, suggesting that a large amount of studies will demonstrate futility and therefore science will clearly lean on that edge.

Which, let’s face it, is not completely wrong. There have been some studies in this direction in the last few months which have been done in this direction. The latest media has found a definite echo in traditional media (especially the English-speaking world), the work of John Ionidis, a big name in epidemiology.

However, there are some (very big) nuances in all of this:

1) It is very incomplete, if not distorted, to present things as Mr. Duham and these two organizations. We can actually write the opposite, either: “More and more studies show that tips work well”, and that would be at least true, as there were many. We should only mention those published in scholarly journals Nature, Lancet – Infectious Disease In October and December, Clinical medicine, To Journal of Translational Medicine, To Annals of Medicine and Surgery, etc.

He said, ‘There have been studies in many countries. And when we look at the cases in Australia and New Zealand [ndlr : qui ont appliqué des confinements drastiques dès le début et sont ainsi parvenues à pratiquement éradiquer le virus], We can see that it works, says Roxanne Borges da Silva, researcher at the School of Public Health at the University of Montreal. And if we get back to the mechanism behind all of that, the idea is to reduce contact, so it goes without saying that when we limit people, we slow down community broadcasting. “

2) Some of the “studies” cited by the Mises Institute and FEE are not actually studies, strictly speaking, or presenting original and peer-reviewed data. Their lists actually include a journalistic article, a “working document” ()working Paper) Published by a “comment” about an economic organization and a study.

3) There are several factors that can “mask” the effect of lockdown, and studies that conclude that they are unnecessary have not done all that they need to take into consideration. For example, as we read last fall Nature – Human Behavior And in Science, If prevention comes after several other measures (prohibited gatherings, limited shops, schools and universities, etc.), its effect will be reduced. “If we impose curfew and then limit it, it could be the effect of curfew which would be strongest. But it is very difficult to separate all these influences, ”M.^{to me} Borges da Silva.

In fact, some of them are only satisfied to compare the number of cases or deaths in countries that include or are not. However, many countries have opted for a gradual approach, gradually increasing the severity of the measures. It is therefore often the toughest country to come to terms with keeping its population at home, which can lead to the illusion that lockdowns are associated with more cases or deaths – when it means that officials adjust their measures according to gravity Let’s do the situation.

The presence of other studies, due to these methodological flaws, leads to conclusions on the effectiveness of imprisonment, and what we know about virus transmission, the idea that imprisonment provides almost nothing, is a fairly minority in science. This is a thesis that exists, certainly, and there are serious people to defend it, but they are quite isolated. It is therefore misleading to confuse them that most experts are the only ones who disagree with them.

VERDICT

Is very incomplete. There are many studies that have questioned the effectiveness of some issues, but more than this, it has been concluded that this type of remedy works well – although lowering their results before other measures are implemented can be done. The idea of ​​curbing an epidemic by forcing people to live in their homes also fits very well with what we know to be transmission of the virus.