Although the epidemiological situation in Quebec seems to be improving, it remains fragile until a large proportion of the population is vaccinated.
The most recent estimates from the Institut National de Sante Public du Québec (INSPQ) and the Research Group in Mathematical Modeling and Health Economics Linked Infectious Diseases at Laval University compared to previous models. The estimates were presented during a technical briefing on Thursday.
To Greater Montreal in the Red Zone
While there is strong adherence to current measures, continued participation in vaccination and adherence to deadlines for the administration of supplies and doses, the model predicts a stability in May or even a decrease in hospitals for the metropolis.
On the other hand, an average of similar measures of adherence to the previous March could lead to a significant increase in adherence cases. However, higher vaccination coverage will reduce the impact on hospitalizations and deaths.
For what-if scenarios other Regions
Given the great variability of sanitary measures in other Areas, what-if scenarios have been developed and provide answers to the questions raised.
With the rapid increase in cases, the scenarios suggest that the health measures of the red and orange areas will not be sufficient to spur cases and hospital development. On the other hand, special emergency measures imposed since 6 April can reduce cases and hospitals, breaking chains of transmission.
With regard to the possible lifting of special emergency measures for a passage in the red zone, the model predicts a fluctuation in cases, particularly among the youngest, and increased hospitalizations, especially if special measures have led to community Adequate lack of transmission is not allowed.
From 3 May, for all other Scenarios were considered for the exit of regenerated areas, special emergency measures. Returning to the classroom while maintaining other emergency measures can lead to an increase in cases, especially among the youngest again. However, hospitals may remain stable and decrease.
According to Mark Bryson, associate at INSPQ, full professor at Laval University and director of the research group in Mathematical Modeling and Health Economics related to infectious diseases: “In Greater Montreal, estimates are considered more optimistic than previously given strong participation in vaccination And population adherence to health measures. The coming weeks will be important for areas that have experienced a rapid increase in cases. The development of the epidemic after taking emergency measures. Levels of community transmission, vaccination coverage and measures. The discount will depend on it. “