Trump won everyone In the 2016 election, these states turn them from red to blue, and you can quickly see how bad Trump is currently finding.
Give Biden these six states – Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Arizona and Florida – and keep the rest of the 2020 map as it was in 2016 and a Democratic candidate 333 election votes only 205 For Trump. This would be a larger Election College margin than Election Dam Obama won in the 2012 elections.
But even this cannot catch the dark things for Trump. Think:
To be clear now: Biden is unlikely to win 9 of these states. Texas last traveled for a Democratic presidential candidate carried by Jimmy Carter in 1976. Ohio and Iowa persuasively went to Trump in 2016, and the Republicans remained there in 2018 – they both won the governorships.
But what these recent survey numbers have made clear is that all of these states are too much in the game. So, I don’t think Biden will win Texas, but a) Trump will have to spend money on TV commercials to lock the state, and b) polling shows there is a way for Solo Biden alone.
Also, Biden doesn’t need to win Texas. Or Florida. Or Ohio. Or North Carolina. Even Arizona. Biden only wins Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania and holds other states that Hillary Clinton won in 2016 – the White House 278 election votes. Before the 2016 elections, everything beyond these three states has a long history of supporting Democrats at the presidential level.
The current landscape suggests: a very reliable chance Biden questioned 330 election games on November 3. In a political world, I think, against a president who was polarized and bifurcated and sitting in this way, I think, would be described as landslide.
The only hope for Trump is June 25. So the election will not take 132 more days. Trump has to hope that things will change drastically over the next five months. If they don’t, it probably won’t be a long election night for him.
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