Don’t go chill cold – at least not when it comes to reducing locking restrictions.
This is the message of a new study that uses mathematical modeling to show that governments will not have to close lock-out measures at once after infection rates slow down unless they want to take an increased risk. coronavirus cases threatening to overwhelm health systems.
“Decision makers – pay attention to math: the emergence of crashes requires a gradual and incremental approach to control infection,” said Michael Bonsall, who led the team at the Mathematical Ecology Research group at Oxford University.
“Without this attention, you run the risk of burdening health systems with more waves of infection,” Bonsall told CNN.
Locking restrictions or “infection prevention strategies” vary from country to country and state to state, but include travel bans, school closures, home work / home orders, quarantine and isolation. They can reduce infection rates and spread infections longer with an approach known as infection. straighten the curve.
Thanks to locking measures, an estimated 60 million coronavirus infections were prevented in the United States and 285 million in China a separate study It was recently published in the journal Nature.
But the deadlocks have huge emotional costs and have created crippled economies around the world, including officially putting the US in a recession.
Read the full story here.