Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi held talks with senior officials of ten Pacific countries. This summit comes when he is visiting several countries in the Pacific Ocean. He describes the move as follows: Journey of Peace, Friendship and Cooperation “, according to a press release from the Chinese Foreign Ministry. The May 30 meeting focused on greater diplomatic, economic and political cooperation between Beijing and the countries of the region. It did not lead to an agreement, but the Western bloc was concerned about the attack. Is.

This concern is recognized as legitimate by Bastian Vendendik, an analyst in international relations and an expert on Pacific issues. He guesses that ” China’s influence in the region is growing » And the absence of an agreement is not necessarily synonymous with defeat.

TV5MONDE: No security agreement was reached during this meeting, what does it reflect about China’s influence in the region?

Bastian Vanendik : The first thing is that we should see this visit by the head of Chinese diplomacy as a success already. Westerners make no travel of this magnitude in this region of the world. Politics in Pacific culture is largely achieved through exchanges. The Chinese placed cultural elements at the center of their diplomatic action. Not necessarily what they finance, but a lot in what they do.

Again, it should be understood that the actions of the Chinese in this area are part of a long period, even of a very long duration. This is Xi Jinping’s advantage. In five years, he will still be there, until he dies. They have one advantage, which is that they move slowly. It is a strategy of small steps. Today, we have a big action that is very media. It gives a feeling of power. While there is no agreement on the security aspect, there are some that have been done on other subjects, such as the economic aspect.

Feather VanuatuThe Chinese foreign minister will sign the agreement to rehabilitate an airstrip on Canton Island. It is supposed to help provide humanitarian aid, but if you can land a plane for humanitarian cargo, a classic cargo plane or even military aircraft can land there. Feather kiribatiThe Chinese come to sign the opening of additional fishing rights.

China’s strategy in this area has always been the same. First, we are progressing slowly at the economic level. That is to say, we swallow elements of the local economy because they allow extraordinary credit that international donors do not. As a result, the countries are entirely indebted to China.

this is especially the case Samoa where Tonga’s, Or, China takes up a significant portion of these countries’ economies, such as mining, lumber. in papua new guinea where in the Solomon Islands, Once this is done, China moves from economic agreements to political agreements, then to security, then to defence. For example, this is what is happening in the Solomon Islands today.

TV5MONDE: The President of the Federated States of Micronesia warned other leaders of the region about the Chinese proposal regarding security. How to interpret this warning?

Bastian Vanendik , In fact, island countries have received some or all of the agreements being offered by China. So David Panuelo, leader of Federal State of Micronesia (EFM) There is evidence on the subject. But he doesn’t have all the evidence.

You need to know that the EFM is not a completely independent country, like Palau or like Northern Marianassi where Guam, All of these countries, and the FSM in particular, are territories that are said to be independently affiliated with the United States.

This means that the United States has a financial obligation for these territories. That’s why they give them money. But above all, these regions do not have complete control over their foreign policy. So if tomorrow’s prime minister Vanuatu, of fiji of or Papua New Guinea Given a statement that would be similar to EFM, that would be really interesting.

It is a country that is independently associated with the United States and therefore, in a way, dependent on the uncertainties of the White House, is a bit ‘piloted’. It is not as valid as a warning issued by an independent state.

Later, on the other hand, those states that are not independently associated with any western country in the region, that is, practically all the states of Micronesia – except kiribati And Tuvalu, Cook Islands and French territory, namely New Caledonia, Wallis and Futuna And French Polynesia, there are already Chinese satellites. Therefore, there is little chance that these regions will take decisions that are against the will of China.

TV5MONDE: How to differentiate countries with Chinese influence from countries with Western influence?

Bastian Vanendik : It’s very simple: you have to look at the countries that recognize China and those that recognize Taiwan. It’s no more difficult than that. We also have to see which countries are free and which are not.

Recognizing Taiwan Tuvalu, Nauru, Palau And Marshall Islands,

In 2019, kiribati And solomon islands, which historically recognized the Republic of China which corresponds to Taiwan, switched sides to recognize the People’s Republic of China. This very quickly, that is, two years later, led to the troubles we know in the Solomon Islands.

In fact, Manasseh Sogaware, who was elected Prime Minister of the Solomon Islands, is a historical supporter of the Chinese. This is someone from Guadalcanal. and historically, the second largest island of the archipelago, Malaita dominated. The Malaysians helped the Americans liberate the Solomon Islands from the Japanese. Except, the Americans installed the Malaysians in power, while the capital of the archipelago is on the island of Guadalcanal. 2019 saw an ethnic and political reversal, accompanied by a geopolitical, diplomatic reversal, as the Solomon Islands recognized it. China,

TV5MONDE: Australia and the United States are asking China to stop expanding its influence. Are their fears justified?

Bastian Vanendik , China’s influence in this area is increasing. Will China stop? No. Why ? Quite simply because it is in the nature of the superpowers to try to guarantee their position of hegemony. Today, China continues to exert a hegemony in the Pacific, where the Americans and their younger brother Australians see their hegemony undone because of two things.

The first is that for too long, they lost interest in these areas, thinking they were under their control and that it would not last. Secondly, from the point of view of diplomatic and development assistance, they did not do what was necessary to ensure that these countries were kept under their influence.

Today China is pursuing a policy that is extremely effective, which is ultimately dangerous for these countries. In fact, Chinese influence is particularly reflected in the very significant occupation of primary resources, the lack of interest in human rights and therefore the civilian population.

Furthermore, these are mostly for states where major ethnic and sometimes religious fractures exist, there is a strong potential for conflict and it is not necessarily the Chinese who will help in this.

But above all, China’s position in comparison to global warming is clearly not favorable to these island states, which are extremely vulnerable to the consequences of climate change.

TV5MONDE: In Australia, the Labor Party is ending nine years of Conservative rule in legislative elections. Could this be a game changer?

Bastian Vanendik , In absolute terms, I would say yes, because Labor is less Atlanticist than Conservative. However, this means everything and nothing because the Australian defense was built on being an ally of the United States. Today, Australia, in its diplomatic trajectory, sees itself as nothing more than an ally of the United States. Anthony Albanese, who had just been elected, nevertheless very quickly reaffirmed his commitment to AUKUS (note: agreement signed between Australia, the United States and the United Kingdom) and his relationship with the Americans.

Escalating tensions in the region will only increase the fear of Australians and therefore make them believe that their pro-American stance is correct. We can anticipate that labor is often more open to work with countries other than the United States. For example, it was only with Labour, France began to build a real relationship with Canberra. Perhaps the Albanians will follow this openness and not limit themselves to alliances with the Americans alone. But for the time being it is a little too early to judge.