If Belarus lends its territory to a Russian offensive against Ukraine, it has taken care to avoid becoming a co-combatant. But in a conflict that has defied many forecasts, the entry of Belarusian troops into the battlefield cannot be ruled out.
After more than four months of conflicts, bloody fighting in the east and the Russian failure to take Kyiv, “there are no rational – or even irrational – reasons for Alexander Lukashenko to join Moscow”, with AFP Belarusian analyst Artyom Krabman, with Affiliate Carnegie Center.
We “of course” cannot completely exclude the Belarusian entry into the conflict, notes Artyom Krabman. Furthermore, tensions are rising: Alexander Lukashenko recently claimed that missiles fired toward Belarus from Ukraine had been shot down, promising a “response” if his territory was attacked.
keep some tension
But even though Alexander Lukashenko likes martial speech and uniforms, for Russian military analyst Alexander Khramchikhin, Belarus’s participation is “very unlikely”, as its army has “no combat experience” and only a handful of battalions. He therefore considers it “more useful” to maintain “a certain tension” on the Polish and Ukrainian borders.
According to experts, everything will also depend on what Vladimir Putin expects, on whom Alexander Lukashenko is politically and economically dependent more than ever, as part of the West to suppress a historic protest movement in 2020 – Was isolated and approved.
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