Marian: Is a prison scenario possible?
Pascal Crepe: It is very clear, when you look at what is happening in the UK and the incidence rate in the country is increasing, the situation will not stabilize over the summer if nothing is done. Currently, the rise is relatively strong, but we remain in the low level of events. It will take several weeks for us to find out the rate of problematic events and see a resurgence in hospitalizations.
The relationship between hospitalization stage and the incidence curve is no longer the same as we saw earlier. However, if hospitalization and resuscitation are still the leading indicators, it is unlikely that strong epidemic control measures will be put in place before the start of the school year. It must be remembered that we have really only experienced the captivity of March 2020. People were forced to stay at home and not go out for more than an hour a day. Now we know that it is not necessary to have such a strong confinement.
What other measures can be taken?
The heat measures should be mild for this summer as the virus spreads less in this season. Last summer it was observed that the number of virus reproducing had halved, while no specific measures were taken.
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As the state of vaccinations this year, it is conceivable to restrict access to some places, especially those that welcome the public indoors. This has a dual effect: avoiding groups and encouraging people to get vaccinated. We also saw that the curfew worked quite well. Curfews are possible with variable hours depending on the pandemic situation, as is a new closure of nightclubs in August. It’s still too early to know whether that will be useful or necessary, but confinement is unlikely before the start of the school year or in a local way… but even at a local level it wouldn’t make sense because the spread of the virus is global over the region.
Wouldn’t the French get tired of these measures that change all the time?
We are at a stage where the population is exhausted enough to need to catch its breath for a little more freedom instead. If he doesn’t have one, this space will be created automatically, breaking rules from place to place. That’s why I think it is necessary that the population now takes advantage of renewed freedom, as the state of health allows it. This period can be short and the risk to try is certainly mild thanks to vaccination.
“You don’t have to be a great scholar to predict that a period of decline will still be marked by this pandemic.”
If I had to describe it with a metaphor: We are all on the same bus, the map has been drawn by the virus and we can barely see a few hundred meters in front of us. Unfortunately, when the road turns to the left, you have to follow it so as not to leave the track. Adapting a strategy according to the situation is tiring. Even epidemiologists are starting to get tired of working on the subject, as they certainly can’t turn the page on the coronavirus.
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We have a feeling of repeating this with every wave but the situation is still better than the previous wave. Let’s take advantage of this and get vaccinated. The more vaccinations we get, the less room we leave for the virus.
Is the government not playing with the fear that the French may be pressured to get vaccinated?
It was not the government that introduced the delta version in England and then in France. After various simulations, it is clear that the situation will get worse due to the delta variant. With what we know about the virus, one does not need to be a great expert to predict that a period of decline will again be marked by this pandemic. The announced measures are certainly used to motivate people to get vaccinated. Certainly this is what we expect from the government: prepare and vaccinate. His response is not based on wind or irrational fear, there is an epistemological truth behind it.
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