President 2022: Voting intentions of the French in the United Kingdom

During the 2017 presidential election, Emmanuel Macron won a landslide victory among French immigrants living in the United Kingdom. This year, the outgoing president is expected to maintain similar support despite the rise of the far right.

“I want to believe” UK expatriates “That Changes France” […]” and “that they will have the opportunity to return (…) in the next few years and meet there with success”launched Emmanuel Macron from London during a meeting at Central Hall Westminster on 21 February. According to the Ministry of External Affairs, five years ago, he won 51% of the votes from expatriates in the first round. Behind Walker, François Fillon (Association for a Popular Movement) and Insomys Jean-Luc Mélanchon (La France Insoumes) collected 24.2% and 11.78% of the vote, respectively, across the channel.

This year, the presidential-candidate won 28.5% of the vote in France and outside the borders: he will face the president of the national rally, Marine Le Pen, on 21 April, and must reveal an electoral base that is still loyal, stable and abroad. Solid.

Source: Le Monde / Results of the 2017 presidential election around the world

On January 1, 2022, 1,614,772 citizens were registered in the Register of French people living outside France, out of an estimated total of about 2.5 million or 3% of the electorate worldwide. According to the Banke Transatlantic Observatory of Expatration (OBT) study conducted with Opinionway and UFE among 10,070 people, 82% testified their intention to vote in both rounds.

Confidence vote or useful vote, Macron is a favorite among expatriates in the United Kingdom

In 2017, 95.12% of expatriate voters in the United Kingdom supported Macron in the final round of the 2017 presidential election. Similar results are expected on April 21. However, it should be noted that last May, the Europe Ecology Les Verts group noted a “green wave” that is “getting stronger overseas”. In consular elections in the United Kingdom, the party finished third behind the UDI and LaREM, as Ronan Le Glute, a French senator who lives outside France, reminds us.

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Furthermore, the three main issues for migrant voters are ecological transition, for 58% of respondents, then social security (54%) and finally education and training (49%). Boris, 35, lives in London and is one of those immigrants who are concerned about the environment and education, and regret a secret “budget shortfall”. In France, voters favor safety, purchasing power, and then health (the “L’opinion en Direct” survey).

Most Important Issues for Migrants During the Presidential Election

Study by the Banke Transatlantic Observatory of the Diaspora / Most Important Issues for Migrants

But despite a success for the Greens, forecasts are poised for a comfortable victory for La République en Marche among Frenchmen living in the United Kingdom. And even among those who will not vote because of the conviction, many will vote to block the national rally, like Boris, who will “avoid extremism” on April 21.

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About the Author: Forrest Morton

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