For a little more than the last 60 years, humanity has been turning its ears to space,listening to aliens, since two physicists Famous people have assumed that if technologically advanced extraterrestrial civilizations existed somewhere Galaxy, they probably communicate with each other. But more than 60 years have passed and still nothing. It’s no surprise, now we see Researchers from Beijing Normal University (China). According to their calculations, we may have to wait about 400,000 years for a chance to receive the message of another civilization!

The kind of civilization that can give us a clue is what scientists call communicable extraterrestrial civilizations, SETI. Communicating extraterrestrial intelligent civilizations, in 2020, University of Nottingham researchers (United Kingdom) felt that in our might GalaxyAt least 36 of these civilizations are ready to interact with us. and possibly as many as 2,900 of these advanced extraterrestrial populations.

Even if all this is extremely uncertain, researchers at Beijing Normal University (China) are also trying to come up with a model based on logical assumptions. To produce, above all, a plausible estimate of the rate of occurrence of SETI. By focusing on two parameters that are little known as each other. First Number of habitable Earth-like planets and the frequency with which life on these planets develops in a set. Then a. stage of development Star The host for which a seti may appear.

2,000 years, 400,000 years or… never!

Researchers f. named after_Vs Possibility of seeing Ceti on an exoplanet. and f, stage of evolution of the essential host star. By injecting different values ​​of these variables into their simulations, they arrive at two scenarios. A rather optimistic one. Others much more pessimistic.

So in the best case scenario, a star would have lived 25% of its life prior to Ceti’s emergence and for each habitable planet around it, the probability of this happening would be 0.1%. As a result, there will be at least 42,000 Ceti populations – or populations, since they have already disappeared – the Milky Way. Humanity would only need to wait 2,000 years for the hope of establishing communication. Seems within reach, doesn’t it?

Unfortunately, this remains the most pessimistic scenario proposed by the researchers. With F=75% and fc=0.001%. Then the Milky Way would have only seen the birth of 111 Ceti. And we shouldn’t expect to come into contact with any of them for 400,000 years! Always within reach, do you think? Researchers are more reserved. Because multiple damages can limit the lifespan of a civilization. A Global warming Or a nuclear disaster, for example. or why not, the explosion of one supernova eitherdevastating impact of an asteroid, argument Doomsday – Understand, the doomsday logic – as scholars call it. So maybe we will never get the answer to this big question. But dream, it allows more than ever!