Nearly a quarter of UK pubs and restaurants are in the ‘fear collapse’ business by Christmas

A quarter of British pubs and restaurants are fearing collapse without further government support before Christmas, with a comprehensive survey showing that the epidemic could cost 757575,000 jobs in the hospitality sector by February.

As new analysis shows that a 10-night curfew in England could cost more than £ 750 million late into the night, hospitality traders say they have “fallen on the edge” and are now facing the possibility of falling.

They predicted that the new curfew rule – which could last six months – would make it worse.

According to a survey by the British Beer and Pub Association, UK hospitality and the British Institute of Inquiry, about 23% of pubs, bars and restaurants said they would fold within three months without a financial package for the sector.

One in eight of the hospitality staff has already been made redundant, with more jobs expected to be lost if the Farlow project ends in October.

On average, entrepreneurs believe that their labor force will be 25% smaller in February 2021 than a year earlier – a loss of 675,000 jobs.

The survey, conducted by industry analyst CGA for trade firms and published by ITV, released alarming forecasts shared by pub, bar and restaurant owners before the 10pm curfew was imposed.

“This study shows that pub traders have already spread to the edge,” said Emma McCarkarkin, the BBPA’s chief executive.

“Now that the prime minister has announced more restrictions for them, it is clear that they will need more support from the government to survive.

“Our sector needs immediate stimulus packages in the form of farlow schemes and increased business rate relief, as well as continued VAT on food and soft drinks and a significant reduction in the UK’s extremely high beer tariffs.”

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Kate Nichols, chief executive of UK Hospitality, said: “The future of this sector is still very much in balance.

“The additional restrictions announced this week will further strain a sector that is working with a razor-thin margin and needs all the assistance it can get. It is important to review these restrictions regularly. “

The new analysis for the Guardian raises the survey that more than 750 million sales could be at risk if curfew sanctions continue for six months.

Responses from pub chains and casual dining outlets show that they can earn up to 40% of their sales after 10pm, with bars selling about a quarter of their sales, according to veteran retail analyst Mark Brumby.

Based on data from the hospitality sector, which includes more than 100,000 pubs, bars and restaurants, about 32 32 million a week crosses their net during this time, Brombie said.

This means that venues can typically expect to record revenue of more than m 768m after 10pm for six months.

Some customers would prefer to eat or drink before dinner, meaning that these amounts will not be wasted, especially in restaurants, said Brambi of advisory firm Langton Capital. However, he warned some pubs and bars that a significant portion of their income would be “severely damaged” after 10 p.m.

He added that the order means venues must close at 10pm, to set a deadline for customers so that most stop selling earlier.

Trade organizations, including the UK Hospitality and the British Beer and Pubs Association (BBPA), questioned the scientific evidence for their plans and warned that people would move to places where social distance was not enforced at 10pm.

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On Wednesday, they were expected to officially lobby, warning that the curfew could result in thousands of job losses and business failures.

Nichols said this week that a curfew was risky to wreak havoc on an area “already on its knees,” while Weatherspan founding chairman Tim Martin called the measure “absolutely stupid”.

BBPA chief executive Emma McCarkarkin said: “There is little evidence that pubs that are strictly in compliance with government guidelines are unsafe. So we are not sure that measuring these blankets will make a big difference.”

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