Since the introduction of the curfew at 6 pm, the question has regularly emerged of its positive impact on the Kovid-19 epidemic. What if, on the contrary, it paradoxically caused an increase in contamination?
Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s opinion is, at least in part, related to Toulouse. Under the influence of Haute-Geron, the 6 pm curfew had “harmful” effects as it “increased the prevalence of the virus”, he said on the set of the show “On Live” on Saturday evening, France 2.
What did jean-luke mellenchon say
“Even in science, there is no definite truth. When you see the curfew results in Toulouse, it has increased the prevalence of the virus, “provoked the leader of rebel France.
Contacted to find out what grounds it was on, the 2022 future presidential candidate referred to an article in La DePache published on Friday, and “how the curfew aroused the epidemic in Toulouse at 6 o’clock in the evening” Title given. It is based on the results of analyzes conducted by the Virology Laboratory of Toulouse University Hospital. Two other articles, 20 minutes long and from the actu.fr site, also relayed them.
What do the numbers say
Looking at the data provided by Public Health France, the indicators are clearly on the rise in the metropolis of Toulouse. The incidence rate, equivalent to the number of cases per 100,000 residents in the past week, increased from 60 at Christmas to 231 on January 27 (the most recently available figure). On average, as of January 27, it is at 229 in the 22 largest cities and at 181 in 15 cities where the 6 o’clock curfew only started on January 16, not January 10. 10., nor 12.
Positivity rates are only available in open data at the department level. In Haute-Garnon, it is now around 7%, down from 2% at the end of December.
However, the department is not one of the areas where these health indicators are of greatest concern to public health France. In its regional report published on Thursday, the Health Agency mentions above all Gers, Lozere and Tarn.
What can we conclude (or not)
In view of these deteriorating figures in Toulouse, one might think that the curfew had a negative effect at 6 pm. But it is impossible to say for sure. As we have seen the indicators increased again at the end of December, so before the advanced curfew at 6 pm (it was set at 8 pm from 15 December). However, the effect of a remedy only decreases after 8 to 10 days. Public Health France noted on Thursday that “the fall compared to the date of implementation of the curfew at 6 pm does not yet allow its negative impact to be analyzed”.
Jean-Luc Mellenchon specifically indicates the potential impact associated with congestion in stores and in the city before 6pm. “It was enough to go shopping on Saturday to realize that this is a mess and people are packed on top of each other”, he won over France 2, especially to develop working hours Proposed
“The fact that the movement of people is concentrated at the same time, the 6 o’clock curfew has an undesirable effect, in Toulouse anyway”, in biopatician La DePache Chloe Dimalgio in the Laboratory of Virology of Toulouse University Hospital. . Still, among the eleven most populous cities, Toulouse is the most important in terms of population density, according to INSEE data. A priority, therefore it is not particularly affected by this risk of high traffic.
And even though the incident is increasing after the entry of the curfew at 6 am, there is nothing to connect the two elements. “These are two incidents in parallel, no reason between curfew and escalation,” said Pierre Delobel, head of infectious and tropical diseases at Toulouse University Hospital, 20 minutes away.
Video. Kovid-19: “Curfew’s effectiveness fades”, indicates Olivier Veran
We can also see that growth is slowing down. The incidence rate in Toulouse climbed 14% from 20 to 27 January, but was 34% a week earlier. In addition, wastewater concentrations in SARS-CoV-2 in the city decreased slightly in mid-January, after a twenty-day increase, according to the latest data from the Obépine network. This trend is encouraging, but it is yet to be confirmed over time. If so, one might expect new daily affairs to peak in the coming days.
“Some might say that the English version or the ‘Gale des rice effect’ has increased pollution and would have been worse without the curfew, but the scientist interviewed [dans la Dépêche] Specifies that nothing confirms this hypothesis ”, finally indicating Jean-Luke Mellenchon’s entry. But there is also nothing to confirm that the curfew has advanced since 6 pm, with “increased contamination” in Toulouse.
- Indicators show health conditions deteriorating in Toulouse since late December, as in many other parts of the region.
- On January 16, the curfew came into force at 6 pm in Haute-Geron. Curves kept climbing but there is nothing to add to this advancement of curfew.
- Several indications, such as the slow increase in incident rates and wastewater readings, also point to potential flaws in the coming days.