International agency warns hundreds of thousands of people could die from coronavirus in Latin America and the Caribbean

By October 1, this number could increase more than 300,000.

At this week’s press conference Pan American Health OrganizationBy the end of September, Washington University referred to modeling that predicted more than 438,000 deaths in the region. This means, on average, about 3,500 people can die from the virus every day and after.

The creators of the model say that the countries in the projection assume that they will follow the social withdrawal guidelines. If prevention measures are weakened, deaths may be even higher.

Large populations, big problems

The eight most populous countries in Latin America and the Caribbean – Brazil, Mexico, Colombia, Argentina, Peru, Venezuela, Chile and Ecuador – make up more than 82% of the region’s population.

Therefore, it is not surprising that these countries drive exponential growth in both coronavirus cases and deaths.

Of the 33 countries in the region, these eight countries account for 94% of total cases and 96% of total deaths.

Brazil is the worst offender in the distance. Registered cases and deaths – 1,496,858 and 61,884 respectively, from Thursday continue to climb. The seven-day moving average of newly confirmed cases is higher than ever. It is no longer unusual to report more than 40,000 new cases per day.

Despite this, the economy began to reopen significantly in many parts of the country where it was previously closed. In Rio de Janeiro On Thursday, bars and restaurants were allowed to open at 50% capacity.

Reopening of the economy in Mexico has also taken an important step. In Mexico City, the country’s hardest hit region, bosses enjoyed cocktails and appetizers in restaurants this week for the first time since March 23. Hotels, lounges and markets can now be opened.

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This situation is despite the death toll on Thursday evening at 21,189. This death toll is roughly twice that of a month ago, and is now higher than in Spain.

The actual deaths caused by the virus are probably even more. In an interview with Washington postMexico’s Undersecretary of Health, Hugo L√≥pez-Gatell, said in an upcoming government report that he claimed three times more deaths than expected in a normal year from March to May in Mexico City. “These probable deaths are likely to be covid,” he told the newspaper.

Small countries in the region are generally much better off to control their outbreaks. Uruguay and Paraguay have fewer than 50 deaths in total. Belize has recorded a total of 28 cases since the outbreak began.

However, health officials are concerned about other small countries, such as Costa Rica, that have seen more than double the total of cases in the past month. Pan American Health Organization said new cases may not be on top until October.

The broad wage of the outbreak

The economic outlook in Latin America and the Caribbean was not large before the outbreak came. It has been much worse since then.

International Monetary Fund it predicts that the total GDP in the region will shrink by 9.4% in 2020. This is four points worse than its April forecast and will be the worst recession since record keeping started.

Even the countries that survived the health effects of the epidemic will not be able to avoid the results.

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Many island countries in the Caribbean have a limited number of cases, but a major blow to their economies, tourism, the lifeblood for most, is falling rapidly.

Perhaps surprisingly, they could see record unemployment numbers as a result of the Latin American and Caribbean pandemic. More than 41 million people may remain unemployed in 2020. international Labor OrganizationApproximately 60% increase in 2019.

Some of these unemployed will come from the airline industry, with the carriers of the region among the worst hits in the world.

Mexican carrier Aeromexico filed for bankruptcy this week, joining LatAm Airlines and Avianca Airlines since the third airline epidemic in the region started.

From economy to environment, the Brazilian National Space Research Institute more fires recorded On Amazon, this is more than any June before June 2007.

Forest fires may not appear directly linked to a deadly virus. Environmental activists, however, said that illegal loggers and farm owners made use of limited official sources during the pandemic and burned big-gain forests for financial gain.

Signs of hope

Peru and Chile recorded the sixth and seventh virus cases worldwide, with about 600,000 in total.

However, after months of terrible news, both countries made a more hopeful voice this week.

Wednesday in Chile pointed to the lowest one-day increase in new cases since May 19. The country’s seven-day average has also dropped significantly since its peak on June 21.

Bergut Funeral Service employees deliver coffins to a funeral store in Santiago, Chile on June 19, 2020. According to its owner, Nicolas Bergerie, coffin production increased by 120%.

“Data at the national level is good,” said Chilean Health Minister Enrique Paris. “The country still has fever, but the fever is much lower,” he continued, as the number of infections increased.

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On Thursday, Peru celebrated its sixth consecutive day, when the number of people discharged from hospitals was higher than the number of new cases.

Peru’s Ministry of Health said on Thursday that “… it is one of the best dates in the fight against the epidemic”.

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