Vaccination against Kovid-19 is occurring very slowly in Europe, compared to the United Kingdom, Israel, and the United States. Is it dramatic? It turns out that is not too bad.
To begin with, it is important to be careful with the number of vaccines taken. It cannot be disputed that the US is currently advancing rapidly with around 3 million vaccines per day, which is double that of Belgium when you convert to population numbers. Germany recently stung more than 250,000 people in a single day. When one explains the population difference, it is equivalent to a country, which vaccinates 1 million per day. Italy, Netherlands, Spain and France are all about the pace at which our country is vaccinating.
Contrary to perception, things are not looking bad for the European Union in terms of vaccine deliveries. BioNTech / Pfizer has stated that it will be able to deliver 10 million vaccines on top of the roughly 200 million originally agreed for the second quarter of this year. This means that even though AstraZeneca does not deliver in the next quarter, the European Commission will still be able to achieve its goal of delivering 300 million vaccines to member states.
Even with AstraZeneca it might be better than expected
Which includes Johnson & Johnson’s 55 million single-dose vaccines. And who knows, maybe AstraZeneca will perform its act together in the end. For now, the actual pessimistic estimate is that they will deliver the best 80 million of their promised 180 million doses in the second quarter. But it can be more. On Thursday it became clear that AstraZeneca agreed that almost all doses of the Kovid vaccine produced in the Netherlands that the UK claimed would remain in the European Union.
European Commissioner Thierry Bretton, who led Bloke’s vaccine task force, said AstraZeneca’s CEO had confirmed to him that 1.2 to 1.5 million doses from the Dutch plant would now be delivered to EU member states. The Dutch plant produces around 7.5 million doses per month, which the UK recently claimed was a contractual right under discussion.
The effect of the entire thrombosis smear, where most European countries now have an age restriction for the AstraZeneca vaccine, would not be as bad. To begin with, there were initially problems for those who had already received two injections, but the solution that presented itself there received a second injection of a different vaccine. This has already been decided in France. French people under 55 who have received a single dose of the AstraZeneca vaccine should receive a second injection of either Ffizer or Modern’s vaccines, the leading French public health advisory body says. It concerns over half a million French people who were punctured between 6 February and 13 March. According to the advisory body, there should be twelve weeks between the first rooster with AstraZeneca and the second shot with the second vaccine.
Mathematically, the European goal is indeed possible
As more vaccines arrive, the pace of the EU vaccination program is likely to increase significantly. The average daily vaccination rate would be equal to 2 million per day in mid-April, then increase to one more day in May. It is no coincidence that the European Minister of Health is increasingly convinced that the entire adult population was vaccinated at least once in early July.
At the beginning of the year, Commission Chairman Ursula von der Leyen introduced the European Union’s broad goal: 70 percent of the adult population should be vaccinated “in the summer”. And as unlikely as that may seem, the goal will probably be achieved.
Let’s do the math. At the end of March, around 100 million vaccines had already been distributed. Add in the 380 million coming in the second quarter, and that means that by mid-July, about 270 million EU citizens can be fully vaccinated – or about 70 percent of the 380 million adults in the EU. This calculation assumes that we receive only 80 million vaccines from AstraZeneca, but we receive 55 million from Johnson & Johnson with one dose. Any additional production will accelerate significantly. The most likely candidate here is the mRNA vaccine from the German biotech company Curevac, whose clinical trial data are already under review on the EMA.