What’s the purpose: In theory, we have five months to the general election, where the president has a lot of time to change. Indeed, horse racing polling sometimes varied considerably between this point and Election Day.
However, the presidential approval notes have not made many transitions from June to the Election Day historically.
At this point, it seems likely that Trump’s approval rate will be 50% south, and the net approval score (approval – rejection) will be negative when people vote. Given the strong link between approval ratings and chances of re-election, this should be deeply uncomfortable for Trump.
The average president saw the change of approval grade only 3 points from now until the election. This brings Trump to the mid 40s at best. Trump’s approval rating was similar in the 2018 midterm exams, when his party lost control of the House.
Net approval ratings tell the same story. The average president received only 6 points from this point on his net approval grade change. Trump’s net approval rating, considering that low- and middle-aged teens are negative, a 6-point improvement will lower him with a clear confirmation of -7 to -10 points on Election Day. Again, it’s about where it was in the 2018 midterm exams.
However, Trump is not over yet. It is possible for a president’s grades to change. Harry Truman saw a 20-point increase in net approval grade in the last five months of the 1948 campaign. On the other hand, Lyndon Johnson’s net approval score dropped about 15 points in the last months of the 1964 elections.
However, we are only talking about two out of 13 people whose net approval rating is more than 10 points in the last five months of the campaign. One of these went in the wrong direction for the president. Trump needs a net approval rating to climb more than 10 points to achieve a positive net approval rating.
Could Trump be one of 20%? Frankly. Do not round 20% to 0%.
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