History says Trump’s low approval score is unlikely to move

What’s the purpose: In theory, we have five months to the general election, where the president has a lot of time to change. Indeed, horse racing polling sometimes varied considerably between this point and Election Day.

However, the presidential approval notes have not made many transitions from June to the Election Day historically.

At this point, it seems likely that Trump’s approval rate will be 50% south, and the net approval score (approval – rejection) will be negative when people vote. Given the strong link between approval ratings and chances of re-election, this should be deeply uncomfortable for Trump.

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In the polling age (since 1940), there are 13 presidents serving for another term. I compared the average Gallups (or Public Research Office in 1944) for each of these presidents. June approval rating and their estimated approval degree Election day.

The average president saw the change of approval grade only 3 points from now until the election. This brings Trump to the mid 40s at best. Trump’s approval rating was similar in the 2018 midterm exams, when his party lost control of the House.

Net approval ratings tell the same story. The average president received only 6 points from this point on his net approval grade change. Trump’s net approval rating, considering that low- and middle-aged teens are negative, a 6-point improvement will lower him with a clear confirmation of -7 to -10 points on Election Day. Again, it’s about where it was in the 2018 midterm exams.

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However, Trump is not over yet. It is possible for a president’s grades to change. Harry Truman saw a 20-point increase in net approval grade in the last five months of the 1948 campaign. On the other hand, Lyndon Johnson’s net approval score dropped about 15 points in the last months of the 1964 elections.

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However, we are only talking about two out of 13 people whose net approval rating is more than 10 points in the last five months of the campaign. One of these went in the wrong direction for the president. Trump needs a net approval rating to climb more than 10 points to achieve a positive net approval rating.

Trump’s fate against ex-Vice President Joe Biden will not be perfectly associated with his approval rating, but will be highly relevant. our Last CNN / SSRS surveyMore than 90% of Trump approvers said they would vote for Trump. More than 90% of the disapproved said that they would vote for Biden.
A prediction before FiveThirtyEight’s Nate Silver He stated that a president with a 40% approval rating in June before the elections had only 20% chance of winning the upcoming elections. Jibes with this much more sophisticated models considering some indicators.

Could Trump be one of 20%? Frankly. Do not round 20% to 0%.

Still, don’t forget Trump’s degree of approval. it was more stable more than any president in front of you. There is no particularly strong reason to think that it will achieve a higher increase than the average in the confirmation note and therefore the chances of re-election.
Trump’s inability to move his own numbers is probably the reason Biden is after him. Biden’s being less defined than Trump and Biden’s dragging down may be the only chance Trump has to win.

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About the Author: Abbott Hopkins

Analyst. Amateur problem solver. Wannabe internet expert. Coffee geek. Tv guru. Award-winning communicator. Food nerd.

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