In both surveys, Trump shows a significant leadership among the Republicans he identified: 93% to Biden (Monmouth) and 92% to 4% (NBC News / Wall Street Journal).
What’s the purpose: Trump played a clear game during his presidency to satisfy the Republican base, and the election shows that this effort clearly works. Even if their overall number is weak, the base does not leave it.
Trump’s problem is that he almost got rid of this support reservoir.
No Republican dating back to 2000 had at this point more than 91% of the Republicans who supported it in the ABC News / Washington Post survey. 84% of the Republicans were behind the average Republican. The basic first strategy in these elections was much more meaningful than the previous one during the Trump period.
(The historical nature of these numbers applies if we include independents who entertain the Republican.)
Outside the Republic base where Trump is weak. In ABC / Washington Post (figures are similar for Monmouth and NBC News / Wall Street Journal), Trump is 39% among independents and 3% among Democrats. Both are lower than any Republican at this point in the ABC News / Washington Post poll since 2000.
In other words, there is much more potential support for Trump outside of the core Republic floor. Trump doesn’t seem to be interested in making an effort.
Continuing its basic first strategy, Trump ensures that he does not see the bottom fall. However, he will find it difficult to accumulate the coalition needed to win.
This story has been updated to include the Sunday results of the NBC News / Wall Street Journal survey.
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