Today’s FTSE 100 was to be built on the basis of yesterday’s strong rally, above the 7,000 mark, as another eventful week was about to end.
Wednesday’s worst case was followed by a 1% rally on Thursday and FTSE is expected to open another 12 points on 7027 today. Not too much rally, but consolidation in positive territory nonetheless.
Last night, Wall Street broke its three-day losing streak with a positive end, spreading to Japan this morning, where Nikkei was up 0.7%. However, Hong Kong and China saw slight declines, leading to some optimism in Europe.
The key to today’s business may be the economics of retail sales, which have steadily improved since falling more than 8% in January. The number of April is expected to increase by a positive 4.5% in the month and 36.8% over the previous year. This latest figure should really be ignored as he faces the dark days of the Kovid blockade in 2020.
CMC Markets analyst Michael Hughson pointed out that the British Retail Consortium’s high street poll showed a month-on-month improvement for April, so official data from the Office for National Statistics should be equally optimistic.
If so, this would set the stage well for the May issues, as April included only two weeks of reopening non-essential retail.
News of the macroeconomic reform in the form of survey of Purchasing Managers’ Index will also be released today. These “flash” figures provide a snapshot of the latest trade and cover major economies such as the UK, Germany, France and the US.
Expect more positivity in most markets. The UK has already seen strong improvement in demand for goods and services, which is expected to continue at the current PMI for May.
On the mainland, some delays are likely to occur as blocks enter later than in the UK, and many leisure and retail activities remain restricted as countries battle different Indian covids.
That said, May will be better than April as vaccination programs have begun to affect infections and allow restrictions to be reduced.
The UK PMI score is expected to reach 62.2 for services and 60.8 for manufacturing, where anything above 50 is positive. This follows April’s score of 61 and 60.9.
The Chancellor Sage craze will be happy with the improvement in the UK economy as it will generate higher tax revenues, possibly allowing them to increase spending on UK public services.
The FT reports that debt for 2021-22 will fall from £ 233.9bn to £ 150bn from the March Financial Responsibility Office forecast. This would allow the craze to present what the newspaper called a “good news” report in the fall.
Treasury officials warned of over-optimism, however, given the uncertain outlook for Kovid’s position expands the Indian version.