Jonathan Eyal, international director of the Royal United Services Institute, argued that the two sides were caught in a “chicken game” in France and were “pulling the strings” behind the European Commission. He said the Reimers had encouraged the European Union to further strengthen Britain and claimed France thought the UK would sink first in the talks, giving President Emmanuel Macron a chance to portray himself as a “great defender of the French national interest”. Mr Macron, he said, had tried to exploit the phishing rights controversy in the coastal community where President Marine Le Pen’s hard-right National Front, whose name could be renamed the National Rally, had already stepped up support ahead of the presidential election.
Mr Ayal emphasized that the risk for France was that Britain could be left in a worse position than it was at the fishing table, and that other EU member states were blaming France for the collapse of the talks.
He warned, however, that “the feeling that pervades Paris [is] They can still maintain European commitment to hold down Britain, and Britain will agree to a final repression. “
The prime minister emphasized the need to focus on France, and said that it was even more important now with the crisis over whether to have France deal with them. More this gambling. This is the main problem, the difficulty that the Prime Minister has.
Mr Yale said “it was always the case that the French would pull back the commission” and described how France had been able to handle the European Union.
“All I can say is that for the French, the EU is a gift that allows them to put pressure on other countries, and it’s not always – always, but often – just to equip the French national interest as the EU’s interest.” Gives the opportunity. “
One of the main mistakes of the arguments, he argued, was to focus on diplomacy in an attempt to influence Germany.
“The curiosity of the British position is that repeatedly the prime ministers – Theresa May and Boris Johnson – both wanted Germany to ease the pressure on the French,” he said. “[They] The Germans believed that they would somehow pull a rabbit out of the hat, putting pressure on the French.
“[The] The British hopes were always misplaced because at the end of the day there were other accounts among the Germans that prevented them from putting too much pressure on the French. “
Describing how the Reymanners have undermined Britain’s negotiating position, he said: “The problem facing British prime ministers over the last four years is that there are so many voices in London who believe that the decision to leave the EU should be the opposite. [it] Encourages foreign leaders to believe that you can take Britain further. “
Although the European Commission has formally negotiated on behalf of all two member states, Mr Ayal said there had been an event since 2016 when it was “very clear” that the French were either behind the rejection of a compromise proposal or had actually increased pressure on the British. Further complicates “.
He argued that it would be impossible for any British Prime Minister to agree to the “level playing field” sought by the EU and to commit to the UK to meet European rules.
He said: “I mean, this is the final blank check in every possible way … Brexit has happened.
“We are where we are. I do not see any British Prime Minister being able to accept such an objectionable claim that you are basically saying ‘I will abide by whatever you decide in the next 20-30 years’.
Looking at the end, he said: “The question is whether both sides have decided to stop this game of chicken and instead rely on the Prime Minister being able to convince everyone that he is ready to bite at the end of the day? Bullets and the collapse of the whole discussion. “
Mr Yale claimed that “no one wants a complete breakdown of negotiations” and said that Poland and Germany could “ultimately violate” with France.
He suggested that there could be a compromise on fishing so that French fishermen could be caught in British waters only after the French presidential election in April 2022.
However, he has no doubt about the high level of negotiations.
“The problem is, it’s really like a Russian roulette game where everyone is pulling the trigger in the hope that the bullet won’t blow your brain,” he said.