Europe at risk of 300,000 deaths and 900,000 hospitalizations in coming months, analysis: Why Italy and the United Kingdom are safer

Europe is vulnerable and the pandemic could still cause at least 300,000 deaths and 900,000 hospitalizations. Fortunately, the darkest times have already passed for Italy and the United Kingdom, which will be safe in the months to come. This is the prediction of a study published on the medRxiv database. preprint, then awaits validation by independent scientists, led by researchers from the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine. British work has sought to calculate what the potential residual load of COVID-19 would be in European countries: how many people, ie, may still be ill, die, or require hospitalization. To do this, the dynamics of previous waves of pandemics were crossed with data related to the population’s susceptibility to the virus โ€“ for example, how many people are immunized because vaccinated or already sick with Covid โ€“ and vulnerability โ€“ For example, advanced age. In the 19 countries considered in the study, epidemics may still be responsible for 300,000 deaths and 900,000 hospitalizations. However, there is great variability.

The United Kingdom will be the least vulnerable country due to the presence of three factors: early start of the vaccination campaign, high coverage rates of the most vulnerable age groups, and high rates of infection during the previous waves. Italy will present a similar situation. Romania, on the other hand, is in the opposite position and will therefore take more risks. But in absolute terms, Germany is the country that could pay the most, with a forecast of more than 280,000 hospitalizations and 115,000 deaths. What the researchers inferredworst caseยป, in which some factors that may have a direct effect on the number of infections are not taken into account, the decline in immunity induced by vaccines in the first months. In any case, the scientists advise, “it is necessary to continue pharmacological interventions and efforts should be made to achieve higher vaccination coverage in the short term to limit the aggravation of the condition”.

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About the Author: Forrest Morton

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