England needed a lockdown but the graphs were a mess, says statistics guru. Coronavirus

According to one expert, despite the government’s presentation of numerous data to justify the latest lockdown, dramatic steps were needed in England to reduce the spread of the coronavirus.

Professor Sir David Spiegelhalter, a member of the non-executive board of the UK Statistics Authority, said a slide was shown at a press conference last Saturday that the potential peak of 4,000 deaths was “really horrible”.

He said the data was outdated and could never be part of any official document.

Spiegelhalter told BBC Radio 4’s Today program: “It’s a noise, it really is. Estimates of all the graphs that were written at last Saturday’s press conference were within that timeframe, they must have been out of time.

“That’s it [the slide about 4,000 deaths] It was really scary – it was old when it was shown. It was never supposed to be part of any traditional document. It was leaked at first and then it was part of the MPs ’briefing. ”

He said some of the assumptions had “validity” but should be taken “with extreme caution”, as they can often expire once they appear.

“December is another projection of short-term deaths until December, and there have been allegations of conspiracy, as it has changed in the press conference and what has now been revealed. The slides have changed for technical reasons but it looks a bit dramatic. “

The top edge of the revised graph did not exceed the first wave of coronavirus death, he said. However, “if you read the small print, there was only a 50/50 chance of getting in or out of it.”

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