If we trust the opinion polls published in the last days before the election, the results of the first round of the 2022 presidential election did not come as a big surprise. However, they did not fully correspond to their measurements.

The polling companies correctly guessed the order in which the candidates would appear. Of the eight surveys studied and published in the final days of the campaign, all estimated the order of arrival of the first six candidates: Emmanuel Macron, Marine Le Pen, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Eric Zemour, Valerie Pecresse, Yannick Jadot.

On the other hand, these polls failed to estimate the extent of the “useful vote” of this first round, during which 73% of the votes cast were focused on the three leading candidates, leaving only a small quarter to the nine other contenders. Votes are to be divided.

Melanchon’s low rated success

The impressive success of Jean-Luc Mélenchon, which began in early March, is one whose end point was the least accurately measured by pollinators. If the continued progress of the leader of La France was followed during the final six weeks of the campaign, his result on Sunday evening clearly exceeded the intentions with which he was credited on Friday, two days before the election. Was. Five polls published on 8 April put him between 16.5% and 17.5% of voting intent, an underestimate by four to five points. While there is no specific reason to believe that the Mélancheon vote was under-reported, it is likely that many voters may have changed their mind on the day before and on the day of voting to keep Leftists in the second round of the election. .

This last-minute report of votes on Jean-Luc Mélenchon explains the poor results of Yannick Jadot and Fabian Roussel, who received slightly fewer votes than opinion polls predicted. Six of the eight polls studied slightly underestimated the environmentalist candidate’s score, while all were mistaken for a communist candidate. But these differences are small and only explain the portion of vote transfers that were in favor of the Popular Union candidate.

Useful Votes Value Pecress and Zemoury

Other unknowns remaining before the first round were the results to be achieved by Valerie Pecrese and Eric Zemor, who have continued to decline voting intentions since mid-February. As the second round progressed for him, it was expected that the share of his electorate would be higher than that of Emmanuel Macron (whose program and political position included M.^Me Pecrese) and Marine Le Pen.

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