A series of surveys (and not many rotations) published on Wednesday simplifies this fact.
How bad are these numbers for Trump? To put a fine point on it: Really bad.
Now let’s look at what these numbers would mean for Trump’s chance to reach 270 in November.
* If Trump loses Texas (and wins everywhere he wins in 2016), loses Biden, 270 election votes, 268 election votes.
* If Trump loses Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin (and wins everywhere he won in 2016), loses Biden from 278 to 260.
* If Trump loses Arizona, Michigan, and Pennsylvania (and wins wherever he won in 2016), loses See Biden 279 to 259.
* If Trump loses Ohio, Michigan, and Wisconsin (and wins wherever he won in 2016), loses See Biden 276 to 262.
* If Trump loses Arizona, Ohio, and Wisconsin (and wins everywhere he wins in 2016), loses See Biden 271 to 267.
The point here is not to say that none of these electoral map scenarios are locked. After all, we are still 152 days away from the November 3 elections. (And yes, I counted.)
On the contrary, they have to point out that Biden currently has a lot of different ways to ALL 270 election games and that Trump has a decreasing number. And of course, the polls published on Wednesday are not even interested in potentially problematic spots for Trump in Florida, North Carolina, and Georgia, which he won in 2016.
Regardless of its value, Trump’s best / most likely way to a second term would be to lose one or both from Michigan and Pennsylvania and keep all other states he won in 2016. If he lost both Michigan and Pennsylvania, 270 to 268 election votes triumphed against Biden. If he just lost Pennsylvania, he would win with 286 election votes. Trump only has 290 election rights and a second term when you lose Michigan.
“The country is polarized as it was two months ago, and the course of the competition has not changed substantially, Biden is a comfortable leader in the national election, and 270 elections go more than once in the game.
“Although daily developments give something to talk to cable television networks, today’s great story will replace tomorrow a new day and the next day. But the fundamentals of the race will remain unchanged.”
This is absolutely true. As of today, Biden has more ways to reach 270 election games than any point in the campaign. And Trump less.
Can this change? Of course! In the summer of 2016, the election map looked like Hillary Clinton’s defeat Trump. Heck looked like this in the fall.
The choice is not today. Trump will run a well-funded and possibly vicious campaign that wants to paint Biden in a way that doesn’t touch everything from immigration to China. And, as it reminds us of the past few months, events can intervene and change to change what we know about the November elections.
All this is true. None of them are changing the fact that Trump is looking at an increasingly difficult election map today, but it shows that a big change will come soon.