Election map is now leaning a lot against Donald Trump

A series of surveys (and not many rotations) published on Wednesday simplifies this fact.

* A Quinnipiac University survey in Texas Trump competed 44%, Biden 43%.

How bad are these numbers for Trump? To put a fine point on it: Really bad.

The last Democrat to win Arizona at the presidential level was Bill Clinton in 1996. No Democratic state has carried in a presidential race in Texas since Jimmy Carter in 1976. Ohio was one of the fastest moving countries in the presidential races at the beginning of this century, but it moved towards Trump as it had 8 points in 2016. And Wisconsin is widely seen as the most likely situation Trump translated in 2016 to support it again. (Polling Pennsylvania and Michigan – The two long-term Democratic states that Trump won in 2016 suggest that he is now behind Biden.)
And according to the tables by CNN’s David Wright, the Trump campaign already Since the beginning of the year, he has spent more than $ 1 million on advertising in Ohio, Wisconsin and Arizona. This means that even with the Trump’s preferred message being teleported to TV screens, voters in these states are not convinced – at least not yet.

Now let’s look at what these numbers would mean for Trump’s chance to reach 270 in November.

Start here: Trump received 306 election votes in 2016. Now consider these 2020 scenarios (all calculations I 270towin.co):

* If Trump loses Texas (and wins everywhere he wins in 2016), loses Biden, 270 election votes, 268 election votes.

* If Trump loses Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin (and wins everywhere he won in 2016), loses Biden from 278 to 260.

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* If Trump loses Arizona, Michigan, and Pennsylvania (and wins wherever he won in 2016), loses See Biden 279 to 259.

* If Trump loses Ohio, Michigan, and Wisconsin (and wins wherever he won in 2016), loses See Biden 276 to 262.

* If Trump loses Arizona, Ohio, and Wisconsin (and wins everywhere he wins in 2016), loses See Biden 271 to 267.

The point here is not to say that none of these electoral map scenarios are locked. After all, we are still 152 days away from the November 3 elections. (And yes, I counted.)

On the contrary, they have to point out that Biden currently has a lot of different ways to ALL 270 election games and that Trump has a decreasing number. And of course, the polls published on Wednesday are not even interested in potentially problematic spots for Trump in Florida, North Carolina, and Georgia, which he won in 2016.

Regardless of its value, Trump’s best / most likely way to a second term would be to lose one or both from Michigan and Pennsylvania and keep all other states he won in 2016. If he lost both Michigan and Pennsylvania, 270 to 268 election votes triumphed against Biden. If he just lost Pennsylvania, he would win with 286 election votes. Trump only has 290 election rights and a second term when you lose Michigan.

For a long time as a political disabled Stu Rothenberg wrote in the post-Memorial Day column:

“The country is polarized as it was two months ago, and the course of the competition has not changed substantially, Biden is a comfortable leader in the national election, and 270 elections go more than once in the game.

“Although daily developments give something to talk to cable television networks, today’s great story will replace tomorrow a new day and the next day. But the fundamentals of the race will remain unchanged.”

This is absolutely true. As of today, Biden has more ways to reach 270 election games than any point in the campaign. And Trump less.

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Can this change? Of course! In the summer of 2016, the election map looked like Hillary Clinton’s defeat Trump. Heck looked like this in the fall.

The choice is not today. Trump will run a well-funded and possibly vicious campaign that wants to paint Biden in a way that doesn’t touch everything from immigration to China. And, as it reminds us of the past few months, events can intervene and change to change what we know about the November elections.

All this is true. None of them are changing the fact that Trump is looking at an increasingly difficult election map today, but it shows that a big change will come soon.

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About the Author: Abbott Hopkins

Analyst. Amateur problem solver. Wannabe internet expert. Coffee geek. Tv guru. Award-winning communicator. Food nerd.

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