That is, it is said. At the end ! The government has just announced this: France will have paid off its debt owed to Covid in 2042! So we’ve had it for twenty years now. A generation sacrificed at the altar of “whatever it cost”. It’s like, it’s “equitable” for “collateral damage.” One generation, twenty years! That’s a long time… and 20 years is a very wrong estimate. It would, in fact, be much more. Why? Firstly because it is almost impossible to make economic forecasts in 20 years. Even dangerous. , it has already unfolded enough, even at full speed, not to add more) but 20 hours into the clock, 20 years old, living room.
We are in the year 2000. Everything is wonderful! Yes, yes… Buckle your seatbelt, it will be such a treat! A “great” French economist who has the ears of presidents (yes, all of them) announces “happy globalization” (sic!) to us. China, which rode on a bicycle and was only good at tightening our bolts and lived a day on a bowl of rice, had just joined the WTO. A great opportunity for Europe, France and the world. As long as we wander through a society without work, of leisure, pleasure, and … “knowledge”, they will do our jobs. Another American economist went even further: When the USSR collapses, the world will just … fall flat. Another “great” world expert in political science assures us that this is the “end of history”! No more enemies, no more boundaries, all in union, in the same boat and on the same planet moving towards happiness and universal harmony.
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In a nutshell: in twenty years, we have actually seen: the collapse of the world, the towers of Manhattan colliding with planes, the absolute dominance of China at the industrial level, and above all (for) the scientific and technological level of people who only need to bolt. Tightening were …), the Internet bubble, the subprime crisis, the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers, social networks, Libya, Syria and Lampedusa. In short: no plan or scenario, however thought up by the brightest minds of the moment, has worked out.
And with regard to the global crisis that we just experienced (Covid 19), I was one of the same pillars who “predicted” (“crisis that will ridicule all others”) even Dare to see. I compared those results to “plagues” that have yet been “forgotten” such as plague and cholera.
So, you got me, you have to be restrained, careful and above all attentive to the expiration date within the scope of the forecast… Huge risk of addiction (in every sense of the word, especially during the election period).
So why spend more than 20 years “purifying” the “generosity” of “whatever it costs”?
First of all, “what it costs has been pretty much” … sizable! As evidence, the number of bankruptcies has halved during this period! Whether it’s a kebab on a street corner or a big airline company that treats its pilots like royalty, or even another big company, absolutely generic and no less strategic, that pay-mail Sells pens, books and more. vacuum cleaner. As proof, again, the fortunes of billionaires in France have quite simply doubled during the same year!
The debt is now 120% of GDP (Germany, with whom we have always wanted to believe ourselves “in a relationship” – what a strange idea: Germans never use a word that touches intimate – Also – half is: 60%…), and the external deficit is very low (again, Germany’s surplus is in surplus, and yet we share the same euro).
And the “whatever it costs” continues. Like the snake, it has changed its skin, its name, but public money is still flowing in a “constant stream”. The bottle doesn’t matter, as long as we have it. Drunkenness, Musset already told us. Again, reimbursement “by growth” is a dangerous lure. At 12% of GDP (by the way one of the most vertical in Europe), we would have “stagflation”. Or a combination of stagnation and inflation.
The impending economic “tectonic plates” movement inevitably leads to a confrontation between the United States (the United Kingdom and Australia more or less allied with … yes, submarines are only a precursor) and China (and all in its wake ) sinful). The play is done. Europe has been underestimated by its demographics, its considerable technological and scientific backwardness – precisely accumulated over the past twenty years – and its rigid standards that it imposes on itself, while the rest of the world ignores them (in facts) . Europe, which has no vital, strategic raw materials on its soil, will have weak or no growth at all – its portfolio of proposals is limited, its capacity for innovation is weak, its competitive advantage is narrower than ever. In addition, Europe, within the framework of a certain ideology, is separated from its neighbor and once ally (Stalingrad is more than just a metro station, it has millions dead, Russians – mostly – to save us), Russia , which are resources and weapons. In short, flat growth in Europe. out of sight.
France, unlike the United States, has a large part of its economy – about 32%, as against 16% – that depends on its foreign trade, and especially its imports. Let us recall that the balance between imports and exports, despite the “contract of the centuries”, abrogated or successful, is very negative in France (in contrast, once again, in Germany, which is very positive: the first in the world… . before China). And every year it gets worse.
So France, mechanically, “imports” inflation from abroad. how is it. If only. It is structural. Guaranteed pincer effect. Finally, going into debt means paying off capital and interest. Rates are low today. It is only cyclic. As inflation rises, rates will rise. The famous Phillips curve. And it will hurt. And yet, the “service” of debt is already one of the most important “objects” of the state budget, right behind education and almost … equal to defense.
As far as the capital is concerned, France is largely occupied by foreign private interests. Unlike Japan where there are Japanese interests… Japanese debt.
All this is detrimental to our future economic “sovereignty”. And even more so than our “development, debt eater”. Like a dream Hence, the generosity of “whatever it costs”… it’s one, even two generations in “forced labour”… warned us about the long-term “side effects” of COVID-19 Went. Well, in any case, financially, it already is.
Georges Nardin, economist, international consultant essayist and author (Emerging MNCs, International Corporate Governance, Le Temps des Turbulences, Wanamacha!, La Profeti des Petroglyphs).
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