The Kovid-19 epidemic has reached a “critical stage”, with around 100,000 people being infected and spreading the virus rapidly in England every day, scientists have warned.
Researchers at Imperial College London say there are existing measures to control it Virus Not working
And they argue that more drastic measures are needed nationwide “sooner rather than later.”
The latest test for the universally respected RAACAT-1 survey suggested that one in 786 people in England was infected with the virus. And the epidemic is doubling in size every nine days.
Professor Paul Elliott, one of the leading researchers, said: “We are at a critical juncture in the second wave of the epidemic.
“We are seeing increasing rates of the virus in all regions.
“Whatever is happening – be it behavior (public) or the implementation of current policies – is not enough to reverse the growth rate.”
The REACT-1 study is considered one of the most accurate assessments of the epidemic, examining a few thousand randomly selected people to see if they have symptoms around every month.
The last phase of the study, the swabs, was completed between 16 and 25 October.
The results, which have not yet been peer-reviewed, show that 969,000 people a day are being infected, almost at the top of the first wave.
Hotspots in the north have the highest prevalence of the virus.
In Yorkshire and Humber, one in every 36 people is estimated to be infected. In the Northwest Territories, it is one of 44.
However, the fastest growth rate is now in the south, in London and the number is more than 2.8686. Southeast, southwest and east of England it is above 2, a significant increase.
“South where the north was a few weeks ago,” Professor Elliott says.
“It simply came to our notice then.
“If we are able to lower the value of the R in the south, hopefully we will not get the very high spread that we have in other regions.
“But something has to happen. The public is realizing how serious it is, whether hospitalization and deaths are on the rise, or whether more intensive measures are needed. This is a policy decision.”
Experts warn: “The co-occurrence of high spread and rapid growth is that the second wave of epidemics in England has now reached a critical stage.
“Through regional or national measures, it is time to control the virus and to reduce the number of deaths from Covid-1 deaths to hospital admissions and deaths.”
The rate of infection remained highest among 18-24 year olds, but the fastest growth was in the elderly group, with the rate of infection among 55-64 year olds trembling last month.
The study recommends that hospitalizations and deaths are inevitable in the coming weeks.
Another leading researcher, Professor Steven Riley, said he was “really disappointed” by the results.
“Straightforward estimates of this number will lead to very high-level lawsuits by Christmas,” he said.
“If we are going to consider doing something even tougher at some point in the winter, it becomes a question of scheduling.
“Arguing to do something sooner than these results.”
The only other bright spot in the otherwise shameless results is that the growth rate of the epidemic in the North East of England has dropped dramatically compared to last month, suggesting a strong consensus on social distance.
Helen Lambert, a medical anthropology professor at the University of Bristol, told Sky News that the government needed to be restructured with the public, so the country was once again united against the virus.
“There is confusion and frustration,” he said.
“At the local level and at the district level we have levels, levels, variations and these are difficult to maintain.
“So it’s not a matter of telling people ‘hell with it, let’s not worry’ The vast majority are trying to do the right thing.
“People still know they’re trying to figure out what to do, but it’s getting harder and harder to say what they mean.”
Shadow Health Secretary Jonathan Ashworth MP said: “With the R1 estimate, the virus continues to grow across the country; inevitably there will be more losses, more serious damage and more pressure on the NHS.
“Boris Johnson should have used the school half-term to implement a time-limited circuit break to fix the infection, fix the test and save lives. Instead, the Prime Minister told us that his current approach would bring the number down to 1.
“Ministers must now outline whether their transformation is fulfilling the promise of implementation.”