Experts told Sky News that one in 10 people in the world is likely to be protected against COVID-19 in the first year of vaccine delivery.
An analysis of global production capacity shows that only two billion doses could be made in 2021, even if a vaccine is given the green light by safety regulators at the beginning of the year.
However, late-stage clinical trials require two doses with nine prototype vaccines, which can probably vaccinate more than 12% of the 7.8 billion people.
Dr Cleo Contorobadi, an associate professor of chemical engineering at Imperial College London, told Sky News: “We need to make it clear that not everyone will have access to this vaccine at first glance. We do not have the production capacity.”
Calculations by the Epidemic Preparedness Innovations Coalition show that when production capacity has doubled, according to the plan, less than half of the world’s population could be protected by 2022 in the next 12 months.
This could mean that a few years of travel bans and the need for social distance could take years, unless there is a breakthrough in game change in vaccine technology that speeds up production.
However, the production of large quantities of vaccines is one of the many obstacles that need to be overcome in the coming months.
The biggest hurdle is traditionally the “fill and finish” stage of production, when the vaccine is labeled and packaged in glass vials.
It takes several supply chains to transform the final product seamlessly while meeting the high quality standards. There can be delays in any account.
Sky News was given access to the Warkert plant in Reckham, where the government bought a high-speed production line to produce a finished vaccine within the next 18 months.
Preparations are underway to start production Oxford vaccine As early as November. Eight doses can be produced in each of the two to three million vials.
The vials will be separated until the vaccine is approved by safety regulators – but it must be destroyed if for some reason it is not canceled, said Robbie Limiye, managing director of the UK.
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“This is the risk that the enormity of this epidemic must take into account,” he said.
“This is an unprecedented step taken by the government to develop this vaccine so that it can be used directly if approved by regulators.
“It’s a risk but a calculated risk.”