When Trump closed the gap in the waning days of the 2016 campaign, he had to persuade very few Clinton fans to vote for him. Trump only had to get support from those who were unstable or supported a third-party candidate.
If Trump’s path right now does not take back voters with Biden, it will be difficult if not impossible to win.
Other historical examples are also not very kind to Trump. At this point, the only rival that was around 50% or hung in the air was Jimmy Carter in 1976.
Here’s the problem for Trump: The average survey at this point was Truman’s Republican rival Thomas Dewey, who was 46%. Biden’s advantage over Trump in these surveys is that although Dewey is less than 2 points compared to Truman (just south of 9 points), Biden gains about 5 points more support than voters. Dewey did not dedicate the voters to him, as Biden did at this point.
Indeed, Trump’s need to convince those who are not already in the other camp is reflected in another way. The degree of disapproval in the average survey is 54%. At the point of the polling period, no other president at this point gave such a high approval before the chance to win a second term. Truman’s was 47%, since his approval rating fell 39%. However, there were at least the majority of Americans who did not approve of it.
Trump proved that it can challenge history in 2016. If he is going to win a second period in 2020, Trump will have to earn some.
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