But as we learned in 2016 (and in 2000!), The only number that really matters is Election College.
Last week, two major political prognosticists – Amy Walter in the Cook Political Report and Nate Silver from 538 – published updated views of the election map. The picture they drew for Trump is terrible.
“To win Election College, Biden only needs to win 26 percent of these Toss Up states / territories, while Trump needs to earn more than 75 percent. In other words, Trump has little room for error, a wider way to win. “
Silver’s analysis is similar.
But what are they Which that the election map is in favor of Biden. It’s not the traditional Democratic states that Trump won in 2016, like Michigan and Pennsylvania, but it is likely to return to the Democratic column in 2020, as well as the old Republican castles like Arizona, North Carolina, and maybe Texas appear in the game for Biden.
All of these, as Walter rightly pointed out, the 270 elections required to become the 46th president of the hypothetical Democratic candidate are giving way to the game.
Roads make It still exists for Trump – most importantly, holding two of the three Rust Belt states (Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin) and keeping the status quo elsewhere on the map.
But there are far less ways for Trump than Biden. And at the end of every week, the number of good choice map options for Trump continues to decrease.
Dot: The best news for Trump is that Election Day is still one way. If the election was held today, he would lose convincingly in popular voting and in Election College.